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NFL · API-Sports + Kalshi · tracking two targets: settle P(home wins) at settlement and move the price change over the next minutes · book pre-game sportsbook point spreads · read-only
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moveKalshi price change over the next
Actual change over the next 5 min (a bar every 30 s)
± round-trip cost (spread + fee each way)
Model's 80% range for the next 5 min
Model's average change
Settle target: P(home wins) at settlement
settleP(home wins) at settlement
Kalshi p(home) — mid
Kalshi bid–ask
Settle model p(home)
┊ score changes
Settle edge: model − Kalshi mid, in percentage points. The shaded band is the no-trade zone (half the spread plus the fee). Outside it, buying that side is worth more than it costs if held to settlement.